One of the working papers in the final report of the Arizona Board of Regents' Task Force on Excellence, Efficiency and Competitiveness, this document focuses (in Part I) on the summary, conclusions, and recommendations of future changes and their relationship to the Arizona Universities; and, (in Part II) provides background materials for developing those conclusions. Part I discusses the range of possible futures in Aizona over the next 20 years according to: principal driving forces and emerging trends; demographic trends; economic changes; health and environment issues; political shifts; social values; and technological innovations. Common assumptions are challenged and potential scenarios are presented. Some possible high-impact events noted are biotechnology breakthrough, economic depression, instability in Mexico, a major nuclear energy accident, space manufacturing, and terrorism. Implications of changes for Arizona universities are noted. Some of the 11 conclusions are: recognize that Arizona has a population in transition; forecast accurately the enrollment futures of the universities; and identify realistically university strengths and weaknesses. It is recommended that the universities develop foresight capability in support of strategic planning and current decision processes. Part II presents background studies, national studies and sources, and general issues (technological, economic, demographic, health and environment, social, and political). Contains 35 references. (SM)