ERIC Number: ED303220
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1988-Dec
Reference Count: N/A
Howard Community College Enrollment Projections: Fiscal Year 1989 and Fiscal Years 1990 through 1994. Research Report Number 55.
Novak, Virginia E.; Radcliffe, Susan K.
Enrollment projections for Howard Community College (HCC) are made using an age cohort model that assumes that HCC will continue to enroll the same proportion of students in each age group as are represented in the current student population. Projections are made by calculating the ratio of HCC students in each age group to the number of county residents in the same age groups. These ratios are applied to population projections provided by the Maryland State Planning Center in order to derive enrollment projections. Projections for fiscal year (FY) 1989 fall enrollments using this model came within 3.76% of actual enrollments. There are three major sources of potential errors and/or differences with this model: (1) possible errors in the state planning projections; (2) fall 1988, a year with a high participation rate, is used as the model year; and (3) the model does not consider the effect of tuition increases, if any, or other economic factors. Other factors that may affect enrollments are population growth, unemployment rates, and trends in the numbers of Howard County high school graduates. To account for a variety of unexpected factors, as well as the error margin inherent in any model, moderate projections are bracketed with low projections, which use fall 1987 as the model year for credit enrollment, and high projections, which attempt to include changes in courses and programs designed specifically to increase enrollment. The bulk of the report consists of charts and tables showing past enrollments and projections through 1994. (AJL)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Howard Community Coll., Columbia, MD. Office of Research and Planning.