ERIC Number: ED296676
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1988-Mar
Reference Count: 0
High School Graduates: Projections by State, 1986 to 2004.
Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, New York, NY.; College Board, New York, NY.; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Boulder, CO.
High school graduate projections from late 1987 to the year 2004 are made for total public and nonpublic high school graduates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Patterns in historical data are analyzed at the state level and aggregated to the regional and national level. The projections are based on a cohort survival method, which assumes that enrollments and graduates can be projected by measuring the survival or transition of birth cohorts into first grade and then from one grade level to the next. Projections include: the number of nonpublic graduates is expected to decrease 17% before the year 2000; in the West, the decreases in the early 1990s will be less severe and the recovery in the late 1990s will be more pronounced than in other regions; in the south/southcentral region, one-half the states will experience increases in high school graduates by year 2004, led by Florida with more than a 60% increase; all the northcentral states will experience decreases in the size of the graduating class prior to 1992, including drops of more than 12% in four states; and all the northeast states will experience substantial decreases in their graduating classes by the early 1990s. Information on the research methodology and examples on state historical data worksheets are provided. (SW)
Descriptors: Academic Persistence, Enrollment Projections, Geographic Regions, High School Graduates, High Schools, Higher Education, Private Schools, Projective Measures, Public Schools
Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, P.O. Drawer P, Boulder, CO 80301-0200 ($10.00 plus $2.00 handling).
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, New York, NY.; College Board, New York, NY.; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Boulder, CO.