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ERIC Number: ED294789
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1987-Dec
Understanding Population Projections.
Population Bulletin, v42 n4 Dec 1987
Population projections are "what if" computational exercises. Given selected assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, population trends can be projected. Government and business planners need this information, and they also require enough time to put facilities in place to meet future needs. Everyone benefits from a clearer understanding of population dynamics and social changes. The different aspects of preparing projections, such as obtaining base data and selecting starting and future levels of rates, are highlighted. Both preparers and users need to carefully check the assumptions chosen for the projections since the reliability of the projections depends on those assumptions. The rules of thumb for reliability are: (1) the shorter the projection period, the more reliable the projection is likely to prove; (2) the larger the geographic areas projected, the more reliable the projection is likely to be; and (3) the lower the current fertility and the higher the current life expectancy, the greater will be the reduction in the projections' likely margin of error. Major sources of data and projections on world, regional, national, subnational, and local areas are discussed, as are the difficulties in utilizing data for developing countries. (Author/SM)
Descriptors: Census Figures, Demography, Geographic Distribution, Human Geography, Population Education, Population Growth, Population Trends, Social Studies, Statistical Distributions
Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Circulation Department, 777 14th Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20005 ($5.00).
Publication Type: Reports - Descriptive; Collected Works - Serials
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.