ERIC Number: ED290887
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1987-Jun
Reference Count: N/A
Workforce 2000: Work and Workers for the 21st Century.
Johnston, William B.; And Others
Four key trends will shape the American labor force in the final years of the 20th century. The American economy should grow at a relatively healthy pace. Despite its international comeback, however, U.S. manufacturing constitutes a much smaller share of the economy in the year 2000 than it does today. The work force will grow slowly, becoming older, more female, and more disadvantaged. The new jobs in service industries will demand much higher skills. These trends raise a number of important policy issues. If the United States is to continue to prosper, policymakers must find ways to accomplish the following: stimulate balanced world growth; accelerate productivity increases in service industries; maintain the dynamism of an aging work force, reconcile the conflicting needs of women, work, and families; integrate Black and Hispanic workers fully into the economy; and improve the educational preparation of all workers. Because of the uncertainty of long-range economic forecasts, three scenarios of the U.S. economy in the year 2000 have been devised. The first of these, the baseline or "surprise-free" scenario, calls for a modest improvement in the growth rate that the nation experienced between 1970 and 1985 but not a return to the boom times of the 1950s and 1960s. The "world deflation" scenario focuses on the possibility that a worldwide glut of labor and production capacity in food, minerals, and manufactured goods could lead to a sustained deflation and sluggish economic growth. The third scenario, the "technology boom," postulates a powerful rebound in U.S. economic growth to levels that are comparable with the first two decades after World War II. (MN)
Descriptors: Aging (Individuals), Demography, Economic Climate, Economic Factors, Educational Needs, Employment Patterns, Employment Problems, Employment Projections, Females, Futures (of Society), Labor Force, Labor Needs, Manufacturing Industry, Minority Groups, Policy Formation, Productivity, Public Policy, Racial Integration, Service Occupations, Sex Fairness, Trend Analysis
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Books
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Employment and Training Administration (DOL), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Hudson Inst., Indianapolis, IN.