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ERIC Number: ED279085
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1987-Feb-5
Pages: 12
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
Projecting Personnel Needs.
Kelly, Philip T.
Increased reliance on personnel services is placing school districts' business operations in a no-win situation. This report evaluates methods of student population projection in relation to teacher costs. Educational costs reflect personnel costs in light of a decrease in the number of pupils being served. Increased enrollment projections create a cause for concern. Over 60 percent of a district's budget is for teachers' salaries. The most significant cost factor is pupil-to-teacher ratio; therefore, full utilization of staff must be considered. Population projection methods provide estimates of students to be served, including the following: (1) census data analysis--updated every 10 years; (2) saturation analysis--based on land area and zoning; (3) estimates by principals--involving knowledge of attendance trends; (4) cohort-survival--based on student population movement trends. The latter method is most frequently used, along with adjustments based on principals' estimates. Making this projection involves three steps: (1) local births listed from 11 to 7 years earlier and first-grade enrollment for the previous 5 years indicate first grade enrollments; (2) each grade's enrollment for the previous 6 years forecasts enrollment for the remaining grades; and (3) student information is converted to the number of teachers needed. Although numerous methods determine the number of teachers needed, a district must use a suitable process to achieve maximum service and significant cost savings. Charts of sample pupil population projections and projected teacher need are appended. (CJH)
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Practitioners; Researchers
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Association of School Business Officials (Myrtle Beach, SC, February 4-6, 1987).