ERIC Number: ED279085
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1987-Feb-5
Reference Count: 0
Projecting Personnel Needs.
Kelly, Philip T.
Increased reliance on personnel services is placing school districts' business operations in a no-win situation. This report evaluates methods of student population projection in relation to teacher costs. Educational costs reflect personnel costs in light of a decrease in the number of pupils being served. Increased enrollment projections create a cause for concern. Over 60 percent of a district's budget is for teachers' salaries. The most significant cost factor is pupil-to-teacher ratio; therefore, full utilization of staff must be considered. Population projection methods provide estimates of students to be served, including the following: (1) census data analysis--updated every 10 years; (2) saturation analysis--based on land area and zoning; (3) estimates by principals--involving knowledge of attendance trends; (4) cohort-survival--based on student population movement trends. The latter method is most frequently used, along with adjustments based on principals' estimates. Making this projection involves three steps: (1) local births listed from 11 to 7 years earlier and first-grade enrollment for the previous 5 years indicate first grade enrollments; (2) each grade's enrollment for the previous 6 years forecasts enrollment for the remaining grades; and (3) student information is converted to the number of teachers needed. Although numerous methods determine the number of teachers needed, a district must use a suitable process to achieve maximum service and significant cost savings. Charts of sample pupil population projections and projected teacher need are appended. (CJH)
Descriptors: Cost Effectiveness, Elementary Secondary Education, Employment Practices, Enrollment Projections, Expenditure per Student, Financial Policy, Long Range Planning, Money Management, Needs Assessment, School Business Officials, School District Size, School District Spending, Staff Utilization, Teacher Salaries, Teacher Student Ratio
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Practitioners; Researchers
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Association of School Business Officials (Myrtle Beach, SC, February 4-6, 1987).