ERIC Number: ED259677
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1985-May
Reference Count: N/A
Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.
Zentner, Rene D.
The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner relevant trends and events that will be helpful in developing a plan. In addition to determining what data are relevant to planning, the scenario developer needs to clarify the following issues: the number of scenarios needed, the time horizon of the scenarios, the probable use of the scenarios, and those who will use the scenarios. Trends important to higher education scenario developers include: the change in the nature of occupations, the change in attitudes toward work, and the declining amount of time the future American will spend working. Six important trends that will affect education in the future include: computers, new delivery media, statistical analysis, social change, institutional inventions, and the use of videotapes to record the lectures of outstanding instructors. It is recommended that scenarios be developed for the future funding of higher education. (SW)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Researchers; Administrators; Practitioners
Authoring Institution: N/A