ERIC Number: ED252354
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1979-Oct
Incoming Population: Where Will the People Live? Coping with Growth.
Siegler, Theodore R.
The guide describes an assessment procedure that can be used by sparsely populated communities located near a potential development to help predict where the incoming population will choose to live and shop. First, a numerical model, the "gravity model," is presented which utilizes community size and the distance from the community to the development site to determine an "attractiveness factor" which can predict locational decisions of the incoming population. Second, because distance and size will never fully explain people's actions, a list of questions about existing community facilities is provided; the answers can be used to modify the model. The guide suggests that applying the assessment procedure to all communities within potential commuting distance from the development site will result in the expected increase in population in each community, which can be further used to estimate potential growth impacts such as increased public service costs, the demand for new housing, the impact on existing facilities (e.g., water supply and schools), and potential new revenue sources. Instructions for calculating the "attractiveness factor" are included. (BRR)
Descriptors: Community Characteristics, Community Services, Community Size, Coping, Distance, Elementary Secondary Education, Evaluation Utilization, Housing Needs, Leaders Guides, Needs Assessment, Policy Formation, Population Growth, Predictive Measurement, Residential Patterns, Resource Materials, Rural Development
Western Rural Development Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331 ($.25 ea. or $4.25 for 14-part series).
Publication Type: Guides - Non-Classroom
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Community; Policymakers
Sponsor: Extension Service (USDA), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Oregon State Univ., Corvallis. Cooperative Extension Service.; Western Rural Development Center, Corvallis, OR.