ERIC Number: ED249114
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983-Sep
Reference Count: 0
A Guide to Some Projections of LDC Food Security toward the End of the Twentieth Century.
Fox, Glenn; Ruttan, Vernon H.
The results of studies that have calculated projections of food deficits for less developed countries (LDC's) toward the year 2000 are compared. Included in the comparison are: (1) reports entitled "The Global 2000 Report to the President,""The Future of the World Economy," and "The Model of International Relations in Agriculture"; (2) work done at Iowa State University, the International Food Policy Research Institute, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; and (3) work sponsored by the Club of Rome. Almost without exception, these studies forsee a future for the food economies of LDC's characterized by rising deficits of consumption over production and/or increasing real food prices. These projects, most of which were initiated during the food crisis of 1973/74, are found to be at variance with observed trends in the post-war era and events occurring since the time they were conducted. A preponderance of attention on supply side factors, at the expense of a thorough investigation of transitory demand side influences, was characteristic of most of the studies. This incomplete diagnosis of the causes of the crisis contributed to a bias in the projections. (Author/RM)
Publication Type: Information Analyses
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis. Hubert H. Humphrey Inst. of Public Affairs.; Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis. Dept. of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Note: A few charts contain small print.