ERIC Number: ED241432
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1984-Feb
Reference Count: 0
Planet Earth, 1984-2034: A Demographic Vision.
Bouvier, Leon F.
Population Bulletin, v39 n1 Feb 1984
In recognition of the 1984 World Population Conference, this booklet examines the current state of world population and presents speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8 percent a year, is being shaped by three demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in developed nations; rapid growth despite falling fertility in developing nations, due to earlier rapid mortality decline; and rapid urbanization in developing nations and unprecedented migration from poor to better-off nations. Nondemographic factors related to population change in the next 50 years are predicted to be: no world war, global resource adequacy, rapid scientific and technological progress, demise of capitalism and communism, and greatly increased aid from advanced to less advanced nations. By the year 2034, nations may be divided into service/information societies, where immigration balances low fertility to prevent population decline; industrialized nations with fertility at replacement level; developing nations in sight of replacement-level fertility; and least developed nations with critical demographic problems. Zero population growth is possible in another 50 years, but only if humankind acts to see that the stated nondemographic assumptions are borne out. (Author/LP)
Publication Type: Information Analyses; Collected Works - Serials
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.
Note: Photographs and charts printed on colored paper may not reproduce well.