ERIC Number: ED229535
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1983-Mar
Reference Count: N/A
Regional Forecasts of Industrial Base Manpower Demand, 1981 to 1987. Volume I: Forecast Summary.
Doggett, Ralph M.
A detailed study was conducted to analyze the role of national defense in shaping employment demand by occupation, both nationally and regionally, over the next 5 years. Data were gathered through the Regional Occupation Planning and Evaluation System (ROPES) in which detailed information on the employment of 163 occupations in 82 industries and information on the distribution of expenditures for defense among supplying industries were combined within a system of economic forecasting models to estimate future employment by occupation nationally, by state, and for each of 70 major cities. Some of the conclusions reached by the study were the following: (1) between 1981 and 1987, the total employed labor force will increase by more than 7 million jobs; (2) one of every five new jobs will be required to supply goods and services to support increasing expenditures for defense; (3) in nearly all industries, defense-related employment will account for over 10 percent of net new jobs; (4) in some industries, total new defense-related employment will be greater than total net new jobs; (5) shortages in trained workers may occur for computer personnel, engineers, technicians, electronic wirers, aircraft mechanics and assemblers, pipefitters, machine tool operators, machine tool setters, punch press setters, and other metalworking operatives; (6) the impact of defense expenditures will continue to be concentrated in California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Indiana, and Connecticut; and (7) there may be a critical shortage of workers in 28 skilled categories in 24 major metropolitan areas. (No attempt was made in this study to forecast employment supply. Details of the forecast are contained in volume 2 of this study.) (KC)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (DOD). Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Data Resources, Inc., Washington, DC.