ERIC Number: ED225043
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1981-Nov
Reference Count: N/A
Decision Making under Uncertainty: The Case of Adoption vs. Foster Care.
Ambrosino, Robert J.
This report provides a detailed description of Decision Analysis, a program designed to help social services administrators make informed judgments about the impact of implementing various program alternatives which compete for funding. A familiar example, whether to place a child in long term foster care or a permanent adoptive home is used to highlight the use of the decision analysis tool. The materials reflect reimbursement guidelines for the State of Colorado. The procedures desribed include structuring the decision problem, assigning even probabilities and costs, and determining expected values. An extensive series of charts and figures illustrate the process described. Sensitivity analysis conducted to determine the effects of changes in assessment on various strategies under investigation is also discussed. The use of information provided by the decision analysis is detailed. An extensive reference list and a selected bibliography are also included. Appendix A provides notes on computing the present value of money; Appendix B contains the adoption components and purchase of service reimbursement formula; Appendix C is a glossary of common terms used in Decision Analysis; and Appendix D provides notes on computing the Expected Preference Criterion. (JAC)
Publication Type: Guides - Non-Classroom; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Administration for Children, Youth, and Families (DHHS), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Texas Univ., Austin.