ERIC Number: ED211737
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1980-Sep
Reference Count: 0
Future Labor Market Demand and Vocational Education.
Review of the methods for estimating future employment opportunities shows that there is an ongoing system, involving the Department of Labor and state employment agencies, for making projections for the United States as a whole and for states and major metropolitan areas. This system combines national research on economic growth, technological developments, and the structure of the economy with local information on industry trends and the labor market situation. Weak spots in the methods occur in making projections of the occupational composition of industries, and in accounting for mobility among occupations and patterns of withdrawal from, and return to, the labor force in individual occupations. Current research on economic growth, technological developments, and the occupational composition of industries may lead to improvements in the reliability of projections. Past projections have been moderately successful in identifying the expanding and declining industries and occupations, and in estimating rates of growth in expanding fields. However, in projecting the other major component of job openings, replacement of those who leave each occupation, the estimates have not been as accurate. Only estimates of deaths and net labor force withdrawals, calculated from averages, are available, and movement among occupations is not accounted for. Comparison of the job openings estimates with data on the numbers of people being trained for each occupation is essential in arriving at judgments about employment opportunities, and in adapting enrollments to prospective demand. However, problems with gathering statistics from the uncentralized vocational education establishment must be worked out for the two systems to work together to match employment demand and trained worker supply. (KC)
Descriptors: Demand Occupations, Educational Needs, Educational Trends, Employment Opportunities, Employment Projections, Employment Statistics, Enrollment Influences, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Trends, Labor Force, Labor Force Development, Labor Market, Labor Needs, Labor Supply, Occupational Information, Postsecondary Education, Research Methodology, Research Problems, Secondary Education, Vocational Education
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Opinion Papers; Information Analyses
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Inst. of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC.