ERIC Number: ED203972
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1980-Nov-7
The Imminent Manpower Crisis: An Opportunity for Society's Rejects.
Blake, Larry J.
Despite predictions in the 1950's and 1960's that computer technology would reduce job opportunities by 90%, historical data published by the Department of Labor reveal that total manpower demands accelerated from 1947 through 1977 and were primarily satisfied by a decreased demand for farm laborers, an increase in percentage of women in the workforce, and the post-World War II baby boom. Changes in these trends, however, pose the imminent possibility that the labor supply will no longer be able to keep up with the demand. Indeed, it now appears that the number of 18-year-olds entering the workforce will diminish and that agricultural employment and the percentage of women entering the labor market will stabilize. In addition, jobs lost to computerization will continue to be offset by employment opportunities left in the wake of new technologies and markets. While deferred retirement and increased immigration may help the country meet this labor demand, the greatest potential labor supply consists of the ten to 20 million individuals who are not in the labor force, but who would join if provided with adequate job training. Educators, therefore, should draw upon their past experiences with CETA (Comprehensive Employment and Training Act) and other federal vocational programs to develop future plans to close the training gap between these individuals and productive employment. The report includes data tables and graphs detailing employment trends from 1947 through 1977. (JP)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: Paper presented to a World Future Society Meeting (Amherst, MA, November 7, 1980).