ERIC Number: ED197491
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1980-Dec
Reference Count: N/A
Simulation of Teacher Demand, Demographics, and Mobility: A Preliminary Report.
Baugh, William H.; Stone, Joe A.
A Markov chain is used to construct a simulation model of the educator labor market in Oregon. The variables crucial to this study, drawn from the University of Southern California faculty planning model, include factors such as appointment rate; age; probability of attaining promotion; retirement, resignation and mortality rates; length of probationary period; size of faculty; and faculty salaries. A two-state faculty flow model that represents both tenured and nontenured faculty is utilized and applied to elementary and secondary educators. In considering this group of educators, the importance of rank and tenure is reduced and that of turnover greatly increased. The simulation model makes possible projections on the future composition of a faculty according to demographic and experiential variables. Empirical transition rates have been determined for the state as a whole and for selected districts. From this data, a variety of sets of personnel policies will be simulated. (Author/WD)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: National Inst. of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Oregon Univ., Eugene. Center for Educational Policy and Management.
Identifiers - Location: Oregon