ERIC Number: ED188538
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1980-Feb
Reference Count: N/A
The Simulation of College Enrollments: A Description of a Higher Education Enrollment Forecasting Model. New York State 1978-1994.
New York State Education Dept., Albany. Office of Postsecondary Research, Information Systems, and Institutional Aid.
A highly technical report describes higher education forecasting procedures used by the State Education Department of New York at Albany to project simulated college enrollments for New York State from 1978-1994. Basic components of the projections--generated for full- and part-time undergraduates, full- and part-time graduates, and first-professionals--are: prospective student pools, participation rates, distribution patterns, flow patterns, and grouping criteria. First-professionals are projected at current levels due to the assumption that interest exceeds available classroom space. Part-time undergraduate, full-time graduate and part-time graduate enrollments are projected by applying projected participation rates for each Regents region to projected population levels in those regions for one or more age group, and then applying projected student distribution patterns across types of institutions. Full-time undergraduate enrollment levels are determined with a synthesis of flow patterns between classes, residence and migration distribution patterns, competition among institutions, cohort participation ratios, cohort levels and a mixture of historical trends, moving averages and judgmental projections of selected component parts. Detailed formulas accompany each process, and are designed for use in other state forecasting models. General indications are that the number of traditional college-age youth has reached a peak and will soon decline in New York State. Appendices include a series of supplementary tables describing trends for various input data, more detailed projections of the data, a description of institutional drawing power, and definitions of data terminology. References are also appended. (DC)
Descriptors: Cohort Analysis, College Bound Students, Data Analysis, Declining Enrollment, Educational Supply, Enrollment Projections, Full Time Students, Higher Education, Models, Part Time Students, Population Trends, Prediction, Predictive Measurement, Prognostic Tests, School Demography, Simulation
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: New York State Education Dept., Albany. Office of Postsecondary Research, Information Systems, and Institutional Aid.
Identifiers - Location: New York