ERIC Number: ED180358
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1979-Oct
Reference Count: 0
Student Enrollment Forecasting Techniques for Higher Education.
Ahrens, Stephen W.
Various techniques used by state agencies, secondary schools, community colleges, and large universities to forecast enrollments are described and guidelines for constructing forecasting procedures are outlined. The forecasting techniques are divided into three categories: (1) quantitative techniques based on historical data that attempt curve fitting; (2) causal models that incorporate historical data and rely on a relationship between enrollments and other parameters, or techniques incorporating subjective judgment rather than quantitative measures; and (3) qualitative techniques utilizing surveys to determine potential students and to modify or suggest adjustments to previously developed forecasting techniques. The selection of an appropriate forecast methodology is dependent on both the resources available and the characteristics of the institutions. The statistical methodology involved in each forecasting technique is detailed. It is suggested that changes in faculty supply and demand, facility needs, and educational economics have increased the importance of accurate enrollment projections. Through accurate forecasting input for both long- and short-range planning can be compiled. (Author/SF)
Descriptors: College Faculty, College Planning, Colleges, Decision Making, Declining Enrollment, Educational Economics, Enrollment Projections, Futures (of Society), Higher Education, Institutional Research, Long Range Planning, Needs Assessment, Prediction, Research Methodology, Statistical Analysis, Universities
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Guides - Non-Classroom
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: West Virginia Univ., Morgantown.
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Southern Association for Institutional Research (Orlando, FL, October 1979)