ERIC Number: ED177043
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-Oct
Reference Count: 0
Forecasting Educational Futures. Resolving Uncertainties and Disagreements through Compact Policy Assessment.
Hudson, Barclay M.
Descriptions of models for policy analysis in future studies are presented. Separate sections of the paper focus on the need for appropriate technologies of social science in future studies, a description of "compact policy assessment" (CPA), and a comparison of two CPA methods, Compass and Delphi. Compact policy assessment refers to any low-cost, short-term approach to project evaluation and decision making. It employs structured workshops to define key policy choices and issues, intensive short-term research on major points of uncertainty, special attention to lessons of historical experience in appraising new proposals, and use of concise, graphic reporting formats to gain early feedback. Both versions of CPA, Delphi and Compass, are designed to address complex problems with a fairly simple procedural formula, offer results based on judgment rather than objective data, encourage divergent exploration of new perspectives, emphasize the value of fruitful tension between opposing views, and seek to economize on information processing. Differences include compactness (Compass is a half-day procedure; Delphi is more elaborate), definition of issues (Compass is open-ended; Delphi employs standard survey research techniques), and methods of handling differences of opinion. An illustration of the use of Compass in assessing educational alternatives projected to the year 2000 and a discussion on the use of CPA to achieve a more sophisticated role for all citizens, including children, conclude the document. (KC)
Publication Type: Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Barclay Hudson and Associates, Santa Monica, CA.
Note: Paper prepared for the World Future Society Conference on Educational Futures (Houston, Texas, October 20-22, 1978)