ERIC Number: ED165682
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-Oct
Reference Count: 0
Field-Disaggregated Analysis and Projections of Graduate Enrollment and Higher Degree Production. A Report for the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education. Project on Quantitative Policy Analysis Models of Demand and Supply in Higher Education. Technical Report No. 5.
von Rothkirch, Christoph
A comprehensive, field-disaggregated analysis of the academic labor market is presented using data from the National Center for Education Statistics for first-year graduate enrollment and higher degrees awarded in distinct fields. The fixed-coefficient model of Cartter (1975) is enlarged and disaggregated into a model of the supply of master's as well as doctor's degrees in 19 different academic fields. Past and present trends of the graduate students' choices of field and type of higher degree are analyzed. These trends are extrapolated, using the least square regression methods and adjustments on the grounds of plausibility considerations, and future graduate enrollment and numbers of higher degrees are projected. It was found that the majority of B.A. graduates still enroll in graduate or professional schools, but more seem to be seeking a degree lower than the doctorate. If trends continue, the share of Ph.D. production in engineering, mathematics, physical sciences, arts, letters, and social sciences, which totalled more than one-half of all Ph.Ds awarded before 1971, will decrease to less than one-third in 1983 and later. There appear to be noneconomic factors, such as concern for the physical and social environment, that influence educational and career decisions. A formal representation of Cartter's Global Model of Ph.D. Production, a description of the field classification employed, statistical data, and comments on the empirical data are included. (SW)
Descriptors: Degrees (Academic), Doctoral Degrees, Employment Opportunities, Enrollment Projections, Graduate Study, Higher Education, Intellectual Disciplines, Labor Market, Majors (Students), Masters Degrees, Models, Occupational Surveys, Trend Analysis
Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, 2150 Shattuck Ave., Berkeley, California 94704
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, Berkeley, CA.
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