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ERIC Number: ED165304
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978
Reference Count: 0
Projections of Enrollments and Classroom Teacher Staffing in Elementary and Secondary Schools.
Frankel, Martin M.
Projections of U.S. public elementary and secondary school enrollments and teacher supply and demand for 1978-86 are summarized in this report. Where possible, the grade retention method is used; otherwise projections are based on three alternate fertility rate estimates. Enrollments in elementary schools have decreased since 1970 to 47.8 million in 1978 and are expected to decrease further to 44.5 million by 1983 and 1984. Starting in 1985, enrollments are expected to increase gradually. The most likely K-8 enrollment projection indicates that K-8 enrollment will decrease to a low of 29.9 million in 1985. Enrollment in grades 9-12 is expected to decrease to 13.2 million in 1986. If an intermediate estimate of pupil/teacher ratio is correct, the number of unemployed teachers should decrease slightly from 2.4 million in 1978 to 2.3 million in the early 1980s before climbing back to 2.4 million in 1985. Decreases in elementary enrollment have not always resulted in corresponding decreases in need for elementary school teachers because of decreases in pupil/teacher ratios. Enrollment decreases in secondary schools, however, are likely to be accompanied by significant decreases in teachers employed. There should be more than enough teacher graduates in the reserve pool to ensure a teacher surplus through 1986. (Author/JM)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (DHEW), Washington, DC.
Note: Not available in paper copy due to marginal legibility of original document