ERIC Number: ED163735
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-Aug
Reference Count: 0
Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.
Efird, Cathy M.
The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and simulations; and collection and synthesis of expert opinion. The following types of demographic data characteristics are identified: physical characteristics; morbidity; economic characteristics; social characteristics; and population dynamics. Data limitations are discussed and the problem determinants of human biology, environment, health care organization, and life style are described. The application of methodology to problems relating to developmental disabilities is explained, and the process of drawing conclusions from existing data is examined. (BD)
Descriptors: Data Analysis, Data Collection, Demography, Developmental Disabilities, Futures (of Society), Prediction, Problem Solving, Program Development, Research Methodology, Trend Analysis
DD/TAS, Region IV, Suite 300 NCNB Plaza, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 ($0.75)
Publication Type: Journal Articles
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Office of Human Development (DHEW), Washington, DC. Office of Developmental Disabilities.
Authoring Institution: North Carolina Univ., Chapel Hill. Frank Porter Graham Center.
Note: DD Themes and Issues: A Series of Topical Papers on Developmental Disabilities