ERIC Number: ED156551
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1977-Sep
Reference Count: 0
Neither Feast nor Famine: Summary of the Second Twenty Year Forecast Project.
Enzer, Selwyn; And Others
Food Policy, v3 nl p3-17 Feb 1978
The key question to ask in determining whether a solution will be found to the world food problem is whether people will learn to effectively manage the food/population balance. Predictions concerning the world food situation should be made on the basis of these factors: (1) possible future changes involving technological development, political and weather upheavals, and resource discoveries or depletions; (2) the evolving state of affairs in areas such as food indicators, demographic trends, behavioral relationships, and weather conditions; and (3) socially controllable changes such as resource allocations, social priorities, political intervention, and economic policy. Analytic models to describe and simulate world food problems can be based upon food systems or upon interacton among variables such as technology, natural catastrophies, and social and political trends. Analysis of the international food situation by either of these models leads to the conclusion that poor importing nations will improve their food conditions if they increase domestic food production rates, decrease their dependence on imported food, and enforce population control at the national level. The implication of this research for developed nations, and particularly for the United States as the world's largest surplus food producer, is that careful consideration should be given to the formation of appropriate national policies in the face of conflicting humanitarian, economic, and political considerations. (Author/DB)
Descriptors: Agricultural Production, Agricultural Trends, Depleted Resources, Developed Nations, Developing Nations, Environmental Education, Food, Futures (of Society), Hunger, International Relations, Models, Needs Assessment, Nutrition, Population Growth, Prediction, Productive Thinking, Research Methodology, Social Change, Socioeconomic Influences, Summative Evaluation, Technological Advancement, World Problems
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Center for Futures Research.