ERIC Number: ED153593
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-Jan
Reference Count: 0
Future Higher Education Enrollments: An Analysis of Enrollment Projections.
Three demographically-based enrollment projections are analyzed in this paper. The first set of projections was prepared by the National Center of Education Statistics (NCES), the second set was estimated by the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, and the third set is the work of Allan Cartter. NCES projections cover the 10-year period of 1975 to 1985. NCES projects that total enrollment will grow by 22.0 percent from 1975 to 1983, when it peaks. By 1985 enrollments are projected to have dropped 2.1 percent from their 1983 peak. The Carnegie estimates of headcount, degree-credit enrollments by level and type show the same general pattern of slowing growth, decline, and recovery depicted by NCES projections. The headcount enrollment is projected to grow 2.8 percent between 1980 and 1985, fall 4.1 percent from its 1985 level by 1990, and grow during the last decade of the century by 6.3 percent. Cartter projected that undergraduate enrollment will increase until 1982 at which time it will enter a decline, shrinking 7.2 percent by 1990 and continuing to decline through 1993 with relatively steady recovery for the rest of the decade. Graduate and first- professional enrollment is not predicted to suffer losses until 1987, with graduate enrollment shrinking 7.0 percent and first-professional contracting 5.1 percent between 1987 and 1990. (SPG)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Congressional Research Service.