ERIC Number: ED153034
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1978-Mar
Reference Count: 0
A Review of Energy Models with Particular Reference to Employment and Manpower Analysis.
Eckstein, Albert J.; Heien, Dale M.
To analyze the application of quantitative models to energy-employment issues, the energy problem was viewed in three distinct, but related, phases: the post-embargo shock effects, the intermediate-term process of adjustment, and the long-run equilibrium. Against this background eighteen existing energy models (government supported as well as private efforts) were reviewed to determine their usefulness in addressing employment problems related to the three phases. The models were divided into three main categories: (1) general-economy energy-sector interactions models, (2) energy sector models, and (3) energy subsector models. Thus far, the models have not been utilized in any significant way for the study of employment and manpower issues. Only one of the category 2 models generates detailed manpower requirements associated with increased investment activity; others in that group as well as several coal sector models could be adapted to do so. Of greatest interest were the category 1 models, but most lack proper price determination mechanism to address long-term questions of adjustment to energy price changes. While most of them incorporate an input-output block to which labor demand estimates are attached, the quality of the specifications was found inadequate. Based on the analysis, five categories of employment and manpower research issues associated with the energy problem were identified: substitution effects, balance-of-payments effects, investment and new construction effects, economic growth and inflation, and distribution of income. (Reviews of each individual model are appended.) (JT)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Employment and Training Administration (DOL), Washington, DC.