ERIC Number: ED127889
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1976
Reference Count: 0
Enrollment Projection Strategies in an Uncertain Environment.
Norris, Donald M.
Trend-demographic enrollment projections recently have been modified by new assumptions regarding the economic returns of education, the growth of the so-called "Learning Society," and changing patterns of student preference. The net result is that institutions are confronted with a wide range of competing projections of the level of future enrollments. Regional variations, the "career-orientation" of many students, differing prospects of different types of institutions, and the timeliness of enrollment data complicate the projection further. Presented are enrollment projection strategies that accommodate both short-term fluctuations and long-term uncertainty. These strategies combine demographic, economic, regional variation, and student-choice variables. They tend to be probabilistic, frequently revised, and more detailed than efforts in the past. The major goal of these strategies is to enable institutions to make decisions that will maintain institutional options, a necessary outcome under conditions of uncertainty. (Author)
Descriptors: Change Agents, College Choice, Demography, Economic Factors, Educational Benefits, Educational Demand, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Trends, Higher Education, Predictive Measurement, Trend Analysis
Office of Institutional Studies, 303 Main Building, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78750
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A