ERIC Number: ED123973
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1975-Jun
Reference Count: 0
Comparison of the Effectiveness of Six Models in Forecasting Student Demand on Academic Departments. Final Report.
Blake, R. John; Robertson, Leon B.
An accurate forecast of the student demand by level on the academic departments of an institution is vital for budget and financial planning decisions, for faculty workload scheduling, and for physical facility planning. Many methods have been used to forecast this demand, ranging from "seat of your pants" guessing to highly complex computer models. This research project studied six basic models for forecasting student demand at various levels of sophistication and complexity. The models studied included judgment only, a ratio model, a Markov model and a combination model. In addition, the dimension of expert judgment was combined to one model to determine the value of the additional input. The model with the expert judgment added was the best model based on the criterion of least-error using several error analysis indices. The simple models gave as good or better forecasts than the more complex models using the same least-error criterion. Also, using a cost-effectiveness criterion, the simple models were again superior to the costly, sophisticated models. (Author)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: National Inst. of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Utah Univ., Salt Lake City.