ERIC Number: ED117332
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1975-Jul
Reference Count: 0
Welfare Dependency and Low Income Labor Markets [and] A Markov Model of Turnover in Aid-to-Families with Dependent Children.
Boskin, Michael J.; Nold, Frederick C.
Two models of the duration of stay on welfare are developed and estimated using panel data from the California Aid to Families with Dependent Children AFDC panel survey. The first model characterizes the distribution of length of stay on welfare as drawn from the lognormal distribution with a truncation at the duration of the experiment (sixty months). The second model analyzes the movements on and off welfare, and duration of stay on welfare as a Markov process. Methodological findings indicate that statistical procedures fail to account for the special characteristics of the limited duration of observation and can be quite misleading. Substantive findings indicate that the welfare population as a whole involves an enormous turnover and modest length of stay. Those earning below the minimum wage are less likely to leave welfare and are more likely to return, stay off welfare for shorter periods and stay on for longer periods, and are more likely to be on welfare in a steady state than those earning above the minimum wage. Persons with high expected unemployment or low non-wage incomes respond similarly to those with below minimum wage earnings. Seven tables supplement the discussions. (Author/LH)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Manpower Administration (DOL), Washington, DC. Office of Research and Development.; National Science Foundation, Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Stanford Univ., CA. Dept. of Economics.; Stanford Univ., CA. Inst. for Mathematical Studies in Social Science.