ERIC Number: ED116728
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1975-Sep-24
Reference Count: N/A
Declining Enrollment: Why? What Are the Trends and Implications?; and Enrollment Forecasting Techniques.
Finch, Harold L.; Tatham, Elaine L.
This document presents a modified cohort survival model which can be of use in making enrollment projections. The model begins by analytically profiling an area's residents. Each person's demographic characteristics--sex, age, place of residence--are recorded in the computer memory. Four major input variables are then incorporated into the model: (1) death rate--deaths are projected for males and females as a function of the number of people for each age; (2) birth rate--three equations are offered, with the most popular projecting the number of births by using the fertility rates of women by age; (3) net migration--total subarea net migration (the number of people moving in minus the number of people moving out of a given area) is assigned by age and sex; (4) land use--designations are based on zoning. Categories employed in this model are: special, agricultural, industrial, commercial, residential (low, medium, and high density), and unzoned. Zoning is specified for the beginning year, and the user has the option of incorporating anticipated zoning changes into the model. Mathematical and computer procedures used in this model include regression analysis and the two-point logistic curve. A hypothetical application of the model is presented, and practice problems are proposed. Sample printouts are appended. (NHM)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Johnson County Community Coll., Overland Park, KS.