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ERIC Number: ED111079
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1975-Mar
Pages: 59
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
Forecasting the Impact of Technological Change on Manpower Utilization and Displacement: An Analytic Summary.
Fechter, Alan
Obstacles to producing forecasts of the impact of technological change and skill utilization are briefly discussed, and existing models for forecasting manpower requirements are described and analyzed. A survey of current literature reveals a concentration of models for producing long-range national forecasts, but few models for generating short-range forecasts disaggregated to the regional, state, and local level. Since there is not much evidence on the accuracy of predictions, attention is focused on the reasonableness of the model structure. Models are also evaluated on the basis of their potential value in policy-formation. It is assumed that this value depends on the value of supply adjustments in the labor market, but a review of the literature on supply reveals that evidence on adjustment is mixed. The conclusion is drawn that existing manpower forecasting models should be modified, so that they are more reasonable representations of labor markets. (Author/JG)
Publications Office, The Urban Institute, 2100 M Street, N. W., Washington, D.C. 20037 (Order No. URI-99000, $2.50)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Office of National Research and Development Assessment.
Authoring Institution: Urban Inst., Washington, DC.