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ERIC Number: ED109191
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1975-Apr
Reference Count: N/A
Methods for Smoothing Expectancy Tables Applied to the Prediction of Success in College. Research Report No. 79.
Perrin, David W.; Whitney, Douglas R.
Six methods for smoothing expectancy tables were compared using data for entering students at 86 colleges and universities. Linear regression analyses were applied to ACT scores and high school grades to obtain predicted first term grade point averages (FGPA's) for students entering each institution in 1969-70. Expectancy tables were constructed for each institution using the relative frequency with which students in each predicted FGPA interval obtained FGPA's of "B or better" and "C or better". The methods used to smooth the 1969-70 expectancy tables were compared on how accurately the smoothed tables corresponded to the 1971-72 and 1972-73 observed data. The smoothed tables were substantially more accurate than the 1969-70 observed data on which they were based. Two maximum likelihood methods yielded the most accurate tables. Estimated relative frequencies were more accurate for the "B or better" level than the "C or better" level. (Author)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A