ERIC Number: ED105107
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1974-May
Reference Count: 0
Scientific Manpower Forecasts from the Viewpoint of a Dismal Scientist. Working Paper No. 47.
Oi, Walter Y.
The working paper concentrates on the general objective, "How do the agency (Federal) and its policy makers utilize the information conveyed by scientific manpower forecasts?" Section 1 examines reasons for the growth in demand for these forecasts: (1) benefit cost analysis of public projects with long payout periods must rely on forecasts; (2) the evaluation of a government agency is typically accomplished by compiling massive quantities of data; (3) information differs from other economic goods because the seller of information is unable to appropriate all of the returns to his information. In section 2 the methodology which characterizes the available scientific manpower forecasts is critically examined, concentrating on three kinds of forecasts: (1) the academic requirements for new doctorates, (2) the manpower requirements for specific occupations, and (3) the supplies of college educated workers. Finally in section 3 attention is directed to the labor market for Ph.D.'s reviewed with reference to the National Science Foundation projections of doctorate supplies and requirements in 1980. The author outlines a model describing the investment on the part of students in obtaining a doctorate degree and the demand on the part of universities for graduate students, in terms of a market equilibrium. (BP)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Princeton Univ., NJ. Industrial Relations Section.