ERIC Number: ED103065
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1975-Feb
Reference Count: N/A
Enrollment Projections: An Evaluation of Current Techniques.
California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.
Evaluation of the State Department of Finance enrollment projection techniques suggest they have become less accurate over time in projecting community college enrollments. In light of the continual growth of the California system, accurate enrollment projection techniques are needed if colleges are to be effectively planned and managed. The basic system of enrollment projection employed by the state, "BD-240," which applies participation rates and grade progression ratios to counts of recent high school seniors, does not take into account trends toward part-time and evening enrollments or the increasing age of enrollees. Improved projection techniques should incorporate the number and character (age, sex, mobility, etc.) of service area population, local socioeconomic conditions (unemployment rate, etc.), and the changing policies of the particular college/district and nearby postsecondary institutions. Preliminary analysis of the results of BD-240 estimates since 1968 suggest that they typically have underestimated total student enrollment and overestimated weekly student contact hours for day-graded activity. Four options for future projections are presented, and enrollment projections based on the BD-240 and the four options are shown through 1985. State and selected district enrollment figures are noted, and the Community College Board of Governors policy statement on enrollment projections is appended. (Author/AH)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.
Identifiers - Location: California