ERIC Number: ED099961
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1974
Reference Count: N/A
Projections of Public and Nonpublic School Enrollment and High School Graduates in New York State: 1974-75 to 1992-93.
New York State Education Dept., Albany. Information Center on Education.
The school enrollment projections presented in this report are based on the application of a modified version of the cohort survival model. Retention ratios from grade to grade were analyzed for six prior years and the trend extended over the 19-year period from 1974-75 to 1992-93. Actual birth figures, population estimates, and projected New York State public school age-grade matrices were used to estimate future first grade enrollments. These first grade estimates together with retention ratios for each grade made possible projections for all grades beginning with actual enrollment figures for the base year, 1973-74. The high school graduate projection was determined from twelfth grade enrollment estimates. Projected enrollments in special classes for handicapped children are based solely on the most recent ratios of enrollment in special classes to total enrollment. No attempt was made to estimate the effects of legislative action on such enrollments. Regional estimates of public school enrollment were obtained by apportioning the first grade estimates for the total State according to the historical trend of first grade enrollment in the various regions. Similar methods were used to project nonpublic school enrollment. Projections are presented in graphic and tabular form. (Author/DN)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: New York State Education Dept., Albany. Information Center on Education.
Identifiers - Location: New York