ERIC Number: ED096751
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1974-Sep
Reference Count: N/A
ENSIM. A User's Manual for a Land Use Analysis-Based Enrollment Simulation. Research Report No. 11 of Project SIMU School: Santa Clara County Component.
Gilmore, William; And Others
Traditionally, the most commonly used methods of forecasting school enrollments have been those that looked to the past for a picture of the future. In restricting the forecaster to projections of past trends, the "percentage survival" technique ignores a host of current trends implicit in a changing society. A second problem with most widely used projection methods has been the inadequate expression of the forecaster's certainty or uncertainty. This paper presents the rationale, methods, and documentation for ENSIM, a computer based long-range enrollment simulation. A "multivariable" method of prediction, ENSIM allows the forecaster to consider a broad range of data--both internal (i.e., traditional district information) and external data (i.e., the multitude of social-economic-political-demographic factors that affect the way we live and the way our children learn). Developed and field tested in the small, semirural town of Morgan Hill, California, ENSIM was specifically designed to apply an enrollment projection "simulator" to districts facing extensive future residential development. For this reason, a future land development projection system was devised and integrated into the ENSIM model to provide data on the number of new dwellings projected for each year of the study. This land development projection system is the heart of the ENSIM model. Built into the model is the capability to evaluate and update enrollment projections on a yearly basis. (Author/MLF)
Publication Type: Guides - General
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Bureau of Elementary and Secondary Education (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Santa Clara County Office of Education, San Jose, CA.
Identifiers - Laws, Policies, & Programs: Elementary and Secondary Education Act Title III