ERIC Number: ED074966
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1970-Apr
Reference Count: N/A
Analysis of a Cohort Prediction Model with Applications to Student Enrollment Forecasting.
Hager, Raymond David, Jr.
A model is presented in this report for the prediction of future enrollment at the Naval Postgraduate School based on the numbers of recruits in the past. This model utilizes the correlation between populations of successive time periods in order to better estimate the future remaining personnel in the system. The number of personnel leaving from each recruit cohort is assumed to follow the same probability distribution that is a function of the age of the cohort in the organization and the grade in which the cohort started. For large cohort sizes the total personnel in the system is approximately normally distributed. The model is applied to predicting university student enrollment and a comparison of predicted and actual student enrollment is included. (Author/HS)
Descriptors: Educational Supply, Enrollment, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Rate, Enrollment Trends, Higher Education
National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22151 (Ad 709 382, MF $.95, HC $3.00)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.