ERIC Number: ED059681
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1972-Jan
Reference Count: 0
Enrollment Projection Models for Institutional Planning.
Orwig, M. D.; And Others
This paper examines alternative techniques for projecting freshman enrollment in specific academic departments. Departmental enrollment projections provided by 4 different projection models are compared to actual departmental enrollments at Kansas State University. Two of the models use only historical data, while the other two models are sensitized to current developments as indicated by the expressed major choices of prospective freshmen. The use of discriminant analysis to establish differential enrollment probabilities is also explored. Although different models do a better job for different curricular departments, the smallest mean squared across all departments was obtained with the simplest projection technique. Based on the results obtained at this one institution, therefore, it would appear that simple and straightforward projection models can be useful as complex and sophisticated models. (Author/HS)
Descriptors: Educational Demand, Educational Planning, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Rate, Enrollment Trends, Higher Education, Institutional Administration, Planning
Research and Development Division, The American College Testing Program, P. O. Box 168, Iowa City, Iowa 52240 ($1.00)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: American Coll. Testing Program, Iowa City, IA. Research and Development Div.