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ERIC Number: ED055586
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1971
Pages: 18
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: 0
Community College Enrollment Projections.
Connor, Aikin
In this discussion of enrollment forecasting for community colleges, a new point of view is expressed. Traditional theory characterizes enrollment as a function of history. The historical approach used such methodologies as: (1) cohort, or percentage of survival, (2) curve-fitting, (3) ratio-method, and (4) correlation-analysis. However, the new perspective outlined in this discussion views enrollment as the product of demands for educational services by the student population, mediated by the operations of the college. Four major process areas are defined and discussed as appropriate to the new enrollment projection method. They are (1) definitions and formulas pertinent to the projection model, (2) outline of appropriate procedures for enrollment forecasting, (3) analysis of current enrollment context, and (4) collection and analysis of necessary institutional and demographic data. The major difficulty in implementing this new method is the quantification of the effects of various limiting and stimulating variables on enrollment. In discussing the four major process areas, an operational definition for each variable is offered and used in a step-by-step procedure illustrating the new principles. Although this treatment of enrollment forecasting is new in relationship to the historical or classical methods, it does not claim to be final or definitive. Rather, it is advanced as an alternative procedure for viewing the problem of enrollment forecasting. (Author/AL)
American Association of Junior Colleges, One Dupont Circle, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 ($1.00)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: American Association of Junior Colleges, Washington, DC.