ERIC Number: ED049150
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1971-Feb
Reference Count: 0
Alternative Futures: Contexts in Which Social Indicators Must Work. Research Note.
Markley, O. W.
No technique of forecasting exists with which a "single" future can be predicted accurately. We can, however, project a set of significantly different but quite plausible lines of future development, a set of alternative future histories, which we hope will bracket the one future that comes to be. Since social indicators are specifically designed to serve as bench marks with which to compare various aspects of society across time, it follows that the more important indicators need to be designed such that they could appropriately be used in each of the plausible futures. A morphological method for projecting such a set of alternative future histories is presented, and interim results described. Development of indicators relating both to what is defined as the world macroproblem and to human well-being and fulfillment are especially urged, as their use would help illuminate difficult problems that occur in all plausible future histories starting with the present. The alternative future histories are also used to illustrate how normative social indicators might be of practical value. (Author)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: National Center for Educational Research and Development (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Stanford Research Inst., Menlo Park, CA. Educational Policy Research Center.