ERIC Number: ED024636
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1968-Mar-24
Reference Count: 0
Analysis of Time-Series Quasi-Experiments. Final Report.
Glass, Gene V.; Maguire, Thomas O.
The objective of this project was to investigate the adequacy of statistical models developed by G. E. P. Box and G. C. Tiao for the analysis of time-series quasi-experiments: (1) The basic model developed by Box and Tiao is applied to actual time-series experiment data from two separate experiments, one in psychology and one in educational psychology. (2) The same model is applied in a relatively complex experimental design to analyze data on traffic fatalities in the state of Connecticut before and after a legislative crackdown on speeding. (3) A generalization by Tiao of the basic model (as yet unpublished) is applied to data on the effects of a revision of Germany's divorce laws in 1900 on the rate of divorce; this model incorporates a "drift" parameter which accommodates series which show either a rise or fall over time. (4) A model which is a particular generalization of the "drift" model is presented; this more general model (developed for this study by Tiao) incorporates a parameter to account for instantaneous change in the direction of the drift of a series associated with the introduction of a treatment. Appendixes A and B contain printouts of computer programs for analyses illustrating (3) and (4). (Author/SG)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC. Bureau of Research.
Authoring Institution: Alberta Univ., Edmonton.; Colorado Univ., Boulder.; Illinois Univ., Urbana. Center for Instructional Research and Curriculum Evaluation.