ERIC Number: EJ768957
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2007-Jun
Pages: 9
Abstractor: Author
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0016-9013
EISSN: N/A
Projected Use of Long-Term-Care Services by Enrolled Veterans
Kinosian, Bruce; Stallard, Eric; Wieland, Darryl
Gerontologist, v47 n3 p356-364 Jun 2007
Purpose: The purpose of this article is to describe the projected use for long-term-care services through 2012. Design and Methods: We constructed a static-component projection model using age, function, and other covariates. We obtained enrollee projections from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and combined these with nursing home and community long-term-care service use rates from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey and the 2000 National Health Interview Survey. Results: Over the next decade, the number of oldest veterans (aged 85+) will double, and VHA-enrolled veterans aged 85 and older will increase sevenfold. This will result in a 20-25% increase in use for both nursing home and home- and community-based services. VHA currently concentrates 90% of its long-term-care resources on nursing home care. However, among those who receive long-term care from all formal sources, 56% receive care in the community. Age and marital status are significant predictors of use of either type of formal long-term-care service for any given level of disability. VHA's experience with the mandatory nursing home benefit suggests that even when the cost to the veteran is near zero, only 60-65% of eligibles will choose VHA-provided care. Assisted living represents nearly 15% of care provided during the past decade to individuals in nursing homes, and approximately 19% of veterans using nursing homes have disability levels comparable to those of men supported in assisted living. Implications: As most of the increased projected use for long-term care will be for home- and community-based services, VHA will need to expand those resources. Use of VHA resources to leverage community services may offer new opportunities to enhance community-based long-term care.
Descriptors: Older Adults, Veterans, Age, Marital Status, Predictor Variables, Nursing Homes, Community Services, Health Services, Futures (of Society), Residential Care, Statistical Analysis, Models
Gerontological Society of America. 1030 15th Street NW Suite 250, Washington, DC 20005. Tel: 202-842-1275; Fax: 202-842-1150; e-mail: geron@geron.org; Web site: http://www.geron.org/journals/gsapub.htm
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: National Health Interview Survey
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A