This study applied the methodology of competing risks survival analysis to determine the probability that a student's first enrollment in the university will end in graduation, transfer, or withdrawal. The risk factors associated with each mode of exit were assessed, with attention to factors such as admission status, full-time or part-time enrollment, major, grade point average (GPA), and ethnicity. The ways that the risk factors exert different influences at different times were also addressed. The analyses were based on the cohort of 1,635 first-time-in-college students entering the university in fall 1987 and followed through spring 1994. Results showed that the risk of transfer to a two-year college was almost as high as the risk of dropout throughout the enrollment period, and that provisionally-admitted students and those with low GPAs were at greatest risk. Almost one-third of the cohort graduated. and almost as many dropped out. The next largest group transferred to a two-year college. By studying the timing of exit, it was learned that what originally was thought to be a high dropout rate after the second semester, especially for Hispanic and provisional students, was, at least in part, a significant movement to the community college. (Contains 34 references.) (SW)