The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules…

This study examines whether the classification and regression tree (CART) model improves the early identification of students at risk for reading comprehension difficulties compared with the more difficult to interpret logistic regression model. CART is a type of predictive modeling that relies on nonparametric techniques. It presents results in…

State education leaders are often interested in identifying schools that have demonstrated success with improving the literacy of students who are at the highest level of risk for reading difficulties. The identification of these schools that are "beating the odds" is typically accomplished by comparing a school's observed…

State education leaders are often interested in identifying schools that have demonstrated success with improving the literacy of students who are at the highest level of risk for reading difficulties. The identification of these schools that are "beating the odds" is typically accomplished by comparing a school's observed…

Florida requires that students who do not meet grade-level reading proficiency standards on the end-of-year state assessment (Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test, FCAT) receive intensive reading intervention. With the stakes so high, teachers and principals are interested in using screening or diagnostic assessments to identify students with a…

Over the past decade, research on dropout prevention has become focused on using evidence-based practice, and data-driven decisions, to mitigate students' dropping out of high school and instead, support and prepare students for career and college. Early warning systems or on-track indicators, in which readily available student-level data are used…

Gifted students have unique educational needs. Although gifted students are as varied as other students in terms of their learning styles and preferences, all gifted learners have exhibited unusual performance or potential and they have distinctive characteristics, shared by most of these students, which require effective responses from educators.…

This paper provides web sites of interest with specific information on dropouts/early warning indicator systems as well as recent conferences discussing early warning indicator systems. This paper is a response to a request asking for early warning indicator systems research for secondary schools. A bibliography is included.

As attention to ninth grade transitions has grown, so has the need to carefully gauge the impacts of efforts to improve student outcomes. The What Works Clearinghouse (WWC), supported by the Institute for Education Sciences at the US Department of Education, sorts interventions based on the quality and the outcomes of the scientifically based…

Research led by the Consortium on Chicago Public School Research (University of Chicago) and the Center for Social Organization of Schools (Johns Hopkins University), has identified specific indicators--students' academic characteristics--that provide early signals that students are on a path toward dropping out of high school. Measured at…

What are states doing to improve graduation rates? A requester asked a state scan matrix of Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) states or other states with similar student demographics, and other states with exemplary programs with great successes. This paper responds to this request.