This report investigates progress in Virginia public schools in satisfying the requirement of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 that every student be proficient in reading and math by 2014. It develops a variable change model that uses observed baseline proficiency and proficiency trends at individual schools to forecast gains for six subgroups in elementary, middle, and high schools. The study finds that there were substantial increases in proficiency overall and especially large increases for schools and subgroups that had low proficiency levels in 2002. The forecasts indicate that there will continue to be substantial proficiency increases in the near term, but that with few exceptions proficiency will plateau at levels well below 100 percent before 2014. Appendices include: (A) Variables in database used to estimate proficiency change-level models; (B) Regressions used to estimate proficiency change-level relationships and steady-state levels, by school type and subgroup; (C) Past performance as a guide to future performance; and (D) Piecewise linear regressions used to estimate reading proficiency change-level relationships and steady-state levels, by school type and subgroup. (Contains 14 notes, 3 boxes, 9 figures, and 10 tables.) [This report was prepared for the National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences (IES) by Regional Educational Laboratory Appalachia administered by The CNA Corporation.]