The goal of predicting student behavior on the immediate next action has been investigated by researchers for many years. However, a fair question is whether this research question is worth all of the attention it has received. This paper investigates predicting student performance after a delay of 5 to 10 days, to determine whether, and when, the…

Learning a more distributed representation of the input feature space is a powerful method to boost the performance of a given predictor. Often this is accomplished by partitioning the data into homogeneous groups by clustering so that separate models could be trained on each cluster. Intuitively each such predictor is a better representative of…

When modeling student learning, tutors that use the Knowledge Tracing framework often assume that all students have the same set of model parameters. We find that when fitting parameters to individual students, there is significant variation among the individual's parameters. We examine if this variation is important in terms of instructional…

Student modeling plays a critical role in developing and improving instruction and instructional technologies. We present a technique for automated improvement of student models that leverages the DataShop repository, crowd sourcing, and a version of the Learning Factors Analysis algorithm. We demonstrate this method on eleven educational…

This work describes a unified approach to two problems previously addressed separately in Intelligent Tutoring Systems: (i) Cognitive Modeling, which factorizes problem solving steps into the latent set of skills required to perform them; and (ii) Student Modeling, which infers students' learning by observing student performance. The practical…

In recent years, the usefulness of affect detection for educational software has become clear. Accurate detection of student affect can support a wide range of interventions with the potential to improve student affect, increase engagement, and improve learning. In addition, accurate detection of student affect could play an essential role in…

A long-standing challenge for knowledge tracing is how to update estimates of multiple subskills that underlie a single observable step. We characterize approaches to this problem by how they model knowledge tracing, fit its parameters, predict performance, and update subskill estimates. Previous methods allocated blame or credit among subskills…

In complex problem solving domains, correct solutions are often comprised of a combination of individual components. Students usually go through several attempts, each attempt reflecting an individual solution state that can be observed during practice. Classic metrics to measure student performance over time rely on counting the number of…

In recent years, machine-learning software packages have made it easier for educational data mining researchers to create real-time detectors of cognitive skill as well as of metacognitive and motivational behavior that can be used to improve student learning. However, there remain challenges to overcome for these methods to become available to…

In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…