Previous work on the long-term effects of early reading focuses on whether children can read early (i.e. capability) not on whether this is beneficial (i.e. optimality). The Luke Effect is introduced to predict long-term reading development as a function of when children learn to read. A review of correlational, intervention, and comparative research suggests that early reading shows only short-term effects for reading skills that later wash out. Based on different developmental trajectories of language and word recognition skills (WRS), it is hypothesised that: (1) children who learn to read later acquire WRS more readily; and (2) acquiring WRS earlier does not improve language development. Thus, reading instruction falling "on good soil [produces] a hundred times as much grain" (Luke, 8:8), but early reading skills do not improve the "soil," simply "withering" until children's language is more developed.