The authors use population census data to project school enrolment for Kenya. They also employ current education sector budget and national revenue base statistics to model the sector budget and to forecast the revenue base growth required to sustain universal primary education (UPE). The 2003 fiscal year unit cost of education is used as the base value for computing the budget needed to fund UPE through 2015, the year by which the international community aims to achieve UPE. The authors apply econometric analysis in exploring the policy implications for the education sector budget and capacity for revenue generation that would support the budgetary growth needed. (Contains 8 figures and 2 tables.)