For students entering Chemistry Two following a Chemistry One course, an assessment exam was given and the results were evaluated in combination with other variables to develop a predictive model that forecasts student achievement in the course. Variables considered in the analysis included student major, GPA, classification (student standing: first year, second year, etc.), Chem One grade, delay since Chem One was completed, institution type at which Chem One was completed, Chem One instructor, enrollment status in the Chem Two lab, number of repeats of Chem Two, and semester of enrollment. Our results suggest that 27-28% of variability in semester course grades can be explained on the basis of the combined influence of only six variables. We identify four general factors that we believe should be considered simultaneously in the assessment of potential student strengths and weaknesses early in the Chem Two semester: historical academic achievement, quality of prerequisite preparation, academic background, and student motivations and attitudes. By implementing a chemistry background assessment and evaluating the results in combination with relevant demographic data, instructors can be better equipped to identify students at risk--both academically and motivationally--and to address those needs and improve student success. (Contains 1 table and 1 figure.)