This paper describes a critical study of the available forecasts and forecasting studies for the home video player market over a 15-year period which was undertaken to discover why so many forecasts were wrong about consumer adoption of home videocassette players and videodisk players, the reasons for these errors, and ways in which this knowledge can be applied to planning and forecasting the development of new communication technologies and services. An overview of forecasting methodologies and a brief history of the development of home video players are provided as background information for a discussion of the 29 forecasts collected from market research firms, government, academic, and other sources. These forecasts are then summarized and compared with actual events. Common forecast errors identified through this exercise are discussed, and suggestions for improving future market forecasts are offered. Both a listing of the forecast studies in chronological order and a 35-item reference list are included. (DJR)