A model was developed at Arizona State University (ASU) to simulate the effect of President Reagan's proposed 1983 cuts in student financial aid in terms of programs and student credit hour load. The model allows administrators to simulate the impact on various student groups. The analysis involved 3,141 full-time undergraduates with financial aid program packages. Students were aggregated into the following groups: students with less than 20 percent loss in aid, students with an aid loss of 20-29 percent, and students with a 30 percent or higher loss. It was assumed that students with 30 percent or more loss would terminate enrollment, while the middle group would be at risk, and the group with less than 20 percent aid loss would probably survive. It was found that 12.5 percent of the study population would probably not continue at the university, 21.4 percent would be at risk, and 66.1 would probably continue. The Reagan proposal seems to affect minority groups unevenly at ASU. More Asian Pacific, Hispanic, and Black students were identified as at risk than were American Native and White students. In addition, more resident students were at risk. Programs and student credit hours in liberal arts, business, engineering, and education were most affected by the proposed cuts. (SW)