Student retention and performance in higher education are important issues for educators, students, and the nation facing critical professional labor shortages. Expectancy and goal setting theories were used to predict academic performance and college student retention. Students' academic expectancy motivation at the start of the college significantly predicted cumulative GPA at the end of their first year. Compared to students who did not return, students that returned for their sophomore year reported greater peer competition with respect to academic goals, perceived good grades to be more attractive, and reported more effort to get good grades. Students' SAT scores and high school grade point average were significantly related to both cumulative GPA and retention after the first year. Study implications are discussed with an emphasis on the motivational set of college applicants, in conjunction with more traditional criteria (e.g., high school GPA) that together may increase student performance and retention. (Contains 5 tables.)